Velocity Analysis: The Cost of Speed?
1. The “Red Zone” Theory
When the pitch clock forced pitchers to work faster, simple physiology suggested they should throw slower to conserve energy.
They didn’t.
Instead, despite having 25% less recovery time, the league’s most fragile aces continued to throw max-effort fastballs. This created a “Red Zone”—a state of constant fatigue without a drop in intensity.
2. The Refusal to Slow Down
The chart below tracks 22 elite pitchers who suffered major arm injuries in 2023. We compared their median fastball velocity in the year they got hurt (Red) versus the year prior (Blue).
Key Takeaway: Look how many Red dots are to the right of the Blue dots. Even as their bodies were breaking down, they were throwing harder.
3. Under the Microscope
Averages can hide the truth. To understand the strain on these arms, we need to look at the consistency of their pitches.
Use the tool below to inspect the Velocity Distribution of any injured pitcher.
How to read this chart The Box: Shows the “normal range” of their fastball.
The Black Diamond: Represents their Median velocity.
The Dots: Individual pitches.
Select a pitcher (e.g., Jacob deGrom or Felix Bautista) to begin investigation: